A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
